The Oil Drum | U.S. Shale Gas: Less Abundance, Higher Cost

The Barnett and Fayetteville shale plays have the most complete history of production and thus provide the best available analogues for shale gas plays with less complete histories.   All shale plays are different but, until more production history is available, the best assumption is that newer plays will develop along similar lines to these older plays.   There is now far too much data in Barnett and Fayetteville to continue use of strong hyperbolic flattening decline models with b coefficients greater than 1.0.

Results to date in the Haynesville Shale play are disappointing, and will substantially underperform industry claims.   In fact, it is difficult to understand how companies justify 125 rigs drilling in a play that has not yet demonstrated commercial viability at present reserve projections until gas prices exceed $8.68 per mmBu.


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